A Super Tuesday primary analysis

On the national scene tonight: Biden and Sanders will likely be neck-and-neck at the end of Super Tuesday with Texas and California likely to split for Sanders, and Biden carrying the southern states, Massachusetts and Minnesota. That is:

Biden wins:

• North Carolina with 61 percent reporting, 39% to Sanders 24%;, Bloomberg, 14 and Warren 10%.

• Tennessee with 72 % reporting, 38% to 25% for Sanders; Bloomberg 17 and Warren, 9 %

• Virginia, 99% reporting, 53% to Sanders’s 29%, Warren 10%, Bloomberg, 9%;

At 10 p.m., Biden is leading in:

• Minnesota, with 22% reporting, 35.9% to Sanders’s 32%; Warrren with 17.5 % and Bloomberg, 7.8%.

• Oklahoma, with 28% reporting, 35.3 % to Sanders’s 21.3%; Bloomberg with 16% and Warren, 12.6%.

• Maine, with 19 % reporting, at 34.2% to Sanders’s 33.8%; to Warren’s 14.7%; to Bloomberg’s 12.3%.

• Massachusetts with 14 % reporting, 33.4 % to Sanders’s 25.9% to Warren’s 21.8% and Bloomberg with 11.7%.

 

Sanders wins:

• Vermont, with 74% reporting: 52% to Biden’s 21.4%, Warren’s 12.5% and Bloomberg’s 9%.

At 10 p.m., Sanders is leading in:

• Colorado, with 10% reporting: 36.3 % to Bloomberg’s 23.5 %; with Biden at 20.5 % and Warren at 17%.

• Texas, with 10 % reporting: 28.4% to Biden’s 22.9% to Bloomberg’s 18.7% to Warren’s, 13.6%.

 

Bloomberg wins American Samoa: 49.9% with Sanders at 10.5%, Biden at 8.8%,Warren at 1.4%.

 

No results have been posted for Utah or California, which has the most delegates at stake with 415, twice as many as Texas at 228, with Massachusetts at 91, North Carolina at 110, Minnesota at 75, and Colorado at 67. Sanders had been leading in the polls by double digits before South Carolina results.

 

BIG NEWS SO FAR:

• Warren wins no states, and loses in her home state to Biden who has 33.4 % and Sanders, who has 25.9 %, compared to only 21.8% for Warren. That leaves Warren with chances to get delegates in about 3-4 states on Super Tuesday due to the fact that candidates earn no delegates in states in which they don’t garner at least 15 percent of the vote.

With no realistic chance to win the nomination after Super Tuesday and a poor showing in Mass, look for Warren to drop out next.

• Bloomberg wins only in America Somoa, at which he garners 6 delegates. He’s likely to gather delegates in Colorado and about 5-6 other states. He has the money, but not much public support. He’s not a fool, and his candidacy appears to be helping Bernie (who he opposes) and hurting Biden. Look for Bloomberg to throw his support behind Biden as well in the near future.

Biden is the surprise hero of the evening, winning more states than expected just a week ago; while Bernie’s thunder has been diminished by the moderates rallying around Biden. Bernie is likely to have as many or more delegates coming out of Super Tuesday, but it will be close and the momentum is clearly favoring Biden.

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Addison County Independent

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Middlebury, VT 05753

Phone: 802.388.4944
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